Vývoj poptávky po pilotech

Odhad vývoje poptávky po pilotech dle předních výrobců letadel

23.11.2013 v rubrice Prognózy, Komentáře (0)

Většina výrobců letadel pravidelně publikuje tzv. “market outlook”, což je odhad vývoje trhu letecké dopravy, založený zpravidla na statistikách objednávek letadel jednotlivých leteckých společností.

Pojďme se podívat, jak vidí trh s leteckou dopravou v následujících 2 desítkách let přední světoví výrobci. Informace mohou být jedním z dobrých ukazatelů toho, jakou máme šanci, že se nám investice do pilotního výcviku vrátí.

Optimistické odhady Boeingu

Boeing na svém webu prezentuje opravdu dlouhodobý výhled, a to až do roku 2032. Jak je vidět na přiloženém koláčovém grafu, největší rozvoj zaznamená dle odhadů letecká doprava v asijsko-pacifickém regionu, kde vznikne podle počtu plánovaných dodávek letadel nové pracovní místo pro 192.300 pilotů. Následují regiony jako Evropa, což je určitě pozitivní informace, a Severní Amerika. Nesmíme zapomínat na to, že trh s poptávkou a nabídkou pilotních pozic je trhem globálním.

Vývoj poptávky po pilotech dle Boeingu (Zdroj: Boeing.com)

Výhled celkově počítá s 498.000 novými piloty, napříč všemi regiony. S potřebou pilotů úzce souvisí také potřeba leteckých techniků, jichž bude dle Boeingu do roku 2032 potřeba více než půl milionu.

A jak to vidí Airbus?

Také Airbus předpokládá velký rozvoj letecké dopravy v asijsko-pacifickém regionu, a to dokonce růst až o 59.6% do roku 2020. V této oblasti bude doručeno 10.941 nových letadel, následuje Evropa (5.952 letadel) a Severní Amerika (5.847 letadel). Celkem bude dodáno dle odhadů 29.226 nových letadel. Pokud budeme brát v úvahu to, že některá z těchto nově doručených letadel nahradí vyřazené kusy, vzroste “světová flotila” ze současných 17.739 na 36.556 letounů, což je rozdíl 18.817 kusů.

Odhad vývoje “světové flotily” letadel dle Airbusu (Zdroj: Airbus.com)

Ve statistikách již nejsou dohledatelné odhady vývoje počtu pilotů, kteří budou potřeba k obsluze těchto nově dodaných strojů. Hrubým výpočtem se však můžeme na nějaké hodnoty dostat. Pokud zůstaneme hodně u země, budeme k obsluze jednoho letadla potřebovat cca. 4 posádky, tedy 8 pilotů (jinak by letadlo zbytečně stálo a jak každý ví, letecké společnosti nekupují letadla, aby stála). Jestliže tedy počet letadel do roku 2032 vzroste o 18.817 kusů, bude potřeba minimálně 150.536 nových pilotů. Minimálně proto, že ve výpočtu nijak nekalkuluji s piloty, kteří v této době odejdou do penze.

Jak je vidět, oba odhady se dost liší. V jednom se ale obě společnosti shodují. Pokud přemýšlíte, jaký cizí jazyk začít studovat, mohla by být čínština, japonština nebo korejština dobrou volbou 🙂

Odhady vývoje trhu s leteckou dopravou publikují také další významní výrobci letadel, zpravidla formou prezentace ve formě PDF. Prostudovat tak můžete výhled brazilského Embraeru, kanadského Bombardieru,nebo evropského ATR.

Líbí se vám článek? Podělte se o něj s ostatními
0

Autor: Jakub Velička

Létám jako dopravní pilot u společnosti Ryanair. Zabývám se pilotním výcvikem v Evropě, zajímám se o všechny informace s ním spojené.

Zanechte komentář nebo názor




(Komentáře podléhají schvalování, po odeslání jsou zobrazeny zpravidla do 24 hodin)

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